Well, yeah, all of a sudden, the barometer is a mighty frost!
This can be seen in many maps of the American and Canadian models, albeit in a less striking way, also in the maps of the European model. We chose to open with thermal paper at 1,500 metres Expected from one of the many US emissions models around to February 8-9showing a retreat from the east of the polar continental air mass, the bitter cold matter, and here it is:
However, there are many others already describing the same scenario: The great anti-cyclone with subtropical roots uprooted from its seat, which in fourth speed kicked off Scandinavia and the wall of frost spreading from east to west reaching the point of invading much of the continentLet’s see some bar charts that describe better than any words the expected situation for the period of February 8-13:
Why would the pressure rise in the north?
It is clear that such a temperature gradient has been established between the north and the south of the continent, that the anticyclone is sent “on a mission” to Scandinavia to try to mitigate it, and therefore it favors the restraint of the great western currents (WESTERLIES) which otherwise would have raged for a long time in those latitudes , resulting in a very stable weather in Italy and very volatile weather, with short rains, plenty of winds but a fairly mild climate in northern Europe.
What is the reliability of seeing what is currently seen only on some maps?
It’s a good question. Certainly the probability that the anticyclone will move northward has increased greatly after February 5th, up to 40%, not a little, and it remains very difficult to understand what this will entail, and how effective the likely retreat of the cold currents from the east will be, even where they will be . Go if it snows in one area or the other. This is where reliability drops a lot.
But this cold scenario can not be radically canceled?
Yes, we’ve already seen it, the models record the weather’s whims as spring, a kind of pendulum that for a few days can tilt towards the turbulent advent of winter, for a few more days swing toward anti-vortex formations; The point is that he is not always in the middle case, sometimes he wins in extreme situations. Who knows if this isn’t the right time.
Here are more heat maps at 1,500 metres This really sounds like a bit too cold, but it obviously still has limited reliability. We always talk about period 8-13 Feb:
Attention: With the Atlantic potentially blocked by the Scandinavian anti-eddy wall and due to cold returning from the east, turbulence could shift south and interact with frigid air, creating severe snow weather conditions even at lower elevations, particularly in the north and in the centre.
at the moment However, the greatest chances of encountering important winter situations are those already mentioned in many articles, that is, the central and southern Adriatic regions, but even here we sail by sight, in fact sudden changes in the expected situation are not excluded, as written Already at the top.
Follow the updates. February is expected to be a lot more fun and a lot less boring and boring than it might seem!
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