Asymmetric geopolitical shock. The impact is less in the United States

(Teleforza) – S&P expects global ratings Geopolitical shock Derived fromRussian invasion of Ukraine A recession in global growth and, in the short term, leading to high inflation. A key consequence is that a possible slowdown in demand-driven growth could ease pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy drastically. “Importantly, this is possible Trauma is the asymmetry between partsAlthough Europe, the Middle East and Africa are unequal across countries in terms of Russia’s dependence on power, they are generally severely affected. Subtracting America“, Reads a statement on this topic.

In assessing the impact on the global macroeconomic environment, the International Assessment Agency is looking at three aspects in particular: Business, Spike redistribution of commodity prices (exporters gain, importers lose), but the impact of overall demand and growth will be negative as exporters save more than importers; The Capital flows, Money moves to less risky assets and makes it more difficult to finance some emerging markets. There HopeThis is likely to slow down both consumers and businesses, despite significant accumulation of savings during epidemics, as GDP growth slows.

For that Financial institutions Globally, the S&P sees different impacts in terms of first-impact effects that are more significant for those in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Limited or very limited to persons residing elsewhere. A few international banks have significant exposure with Russia or Ukraine, mainly through their local branches. This list includes Rating Agency, OTP, Raiffeisen Bank International, Société Générale and UniCredit.

“Other banks operating internationally also have some exposure with Russia, usually through this Multinational customer service or wealth management – The report says – they may see some negative effects from business loss and property quality reduction, as well as the need to adhere to various permit lists. However, the exposures to the relevant opposition parties in the percentage of total debt exposures of these groups are very low.

From a European perspective, the big question is, according to S&P Whether the restrictions on the supply of energy from Russia have been extended. According to the rating agency, contractual arrangements between Russia will continue, given the high dependence of Europe on Russia’s oil and gas. “Even if the certificate is suspended Nort Stream 2 Gas supply will not be affected in the short term, disruption of transport routes through Ukraine could lead to some disruptions or difficulties in making payments as a result of major Russian banks being subject to sanctions – it has been explained – but sanctions will be extended to key Russian energy suppliers in the worst case scenario. This will lead to one Energy shock, especially in EuropeThere is high reliance on Russian natural gas supplies and limited alternative suppliers capable of filling European stock levels before the winter of 2022-2023.