Anticipating retirement, here are the new INPS hypotheses for leaving at 63 or 64

Rome – How do you retire early when the season is over? From January 1, 2023, the possibility of departure will be limited to the normal requirements introduced by the 2012 Fornero Act, and has never been repealed. Thus: in 67 with 20 contributions (old-age pension) or with contributions 42 years and 10 months (less year for women, early retirement). The 100 quota expired on December 31, 2021 (62 + 38). Stake 102 will expire on December 31 this year (64 + 38).

Let’s look at three possible alternatives for those in the mixed system – salary and contributions because they started working before 1996 – and their costs to the state, as visualized and calculated INPS . Annual Report. The schedule between the government and unions on pensions has not met since last February. Prime Minister Draghi has promised a flexible and structural reform that will replace the Fornero law, but only if it is sustainable to public accounts. Any scenario must take into account the fact that in 2023 all pensions will rise by 24 billion because they will be adjusted for inflation for this year (8%).

The first premise: the option to calculate subscriptions

It is assumed that mixed workers exit at 64 years with at least 35 years of contribution seniority, provided that they have received a pension equal to at least 2.2 times the social allowance, or 1030 euros per month if calculated with the level of the social allowance in 2022 (468.11 euros). And with re-calculation of the entire pension on the method of contribution.

For purely contributors (those who have worked since 1996), the pre-contribution requirement – 64 years and 20 contributions – will be corrected, and the requirement reduced from 2.8 to 2.2 times the social allowance “to expand the number of potential beneficiaries, especially to the low level.” income, usually women and the self-employed,” writes INPS.

The cost of state coffers for this option will be 880 million in the first year (2023) to reach a maximum of 3.7 billion in 2029.

The second premise: the reckoning with the penalty

A 64-year retirement is assumed with at least 35 years of contributory seniority for mixed workers, provided that they have received a pension equal to at least 2.2 times the social allowance (1,030 euros per month). And accept the “recalculation of the retirement share”, which is reduced by a factor “equal to the ratio between the conversion factor corresponding to the age of exit and the factor related to the old age.”

In other words, there will be a 3% cut in the salary share alone for each year before old age. Here, too, for the years after 1996, the 2.8 times minimum social benefit will be reduced to 2.2, to allow more people to retire at 64 with 20 contributions.

This second hypothesis presents higher spending levels for state accounts: from about 1 billion in the first year (2023) to 5 billion in 2030, and then decreased. The higher spending compared to the first hypothesis is explained by the fact that the 3% fine on the salary share for each year up front does not affect the greater generosity of the salary calculation system (based on the latest salaries) compared to the single contribution system. (Based on paid subscriptions). Once the 100 salary share is established, it will be reduced to 97 per year up front. With the contribution recalculated, it would be much less than 97.

The third hypothesis: advance only on the part of the pension contribution

A contributory pension is allowed with these requirements: 63 years of age, 20 contributions and the amount of the contributory pension share greater than 1.2 times the social allowance (562 euros). Upon reaching the requirements for an old-age pension (67 years, linked to life expectancy), the worker’s wage share from the pension will also be recognized.

This hypothesis is the least costly for public finances: half a billion in the first year (2023) until a peak of 2.5 billion in 2029, then waned. Instead of the cost, we should talk about the state advance of the amounts accrued to the pensioner (contribution method): in the future, on the contrary, there is a state provision (less years of work, less pension amount). A limit to this proposal can be configured in a small amount of the first allowance received for four years, before the pension is received in full.